On the author
I work in quantitative finance - stochastic models, option and futures pricing. My core work is putting a number on uncertainty: computing what a financial contract is worth today when its payoff depends on events that have not happened yet. A market is really a mechanism that binds probability to money, and my job is to read and price the distribution underneath.
Born 7 April 2003 / Master's in Business, CUHK / he/him
“Thus we may have knowledge of the past but cannot control it; we may control the future but have no knowledge of it.”
Essay of the week
“Six days after Dario Amodei called for an industrywide capabilities pause, Reuters reported Anthropic is weighing an expedited frontier release ahead of its October IPO. A moral truce cannot survive an S-1 filing when public equity markets discount lagging models at enterprise SaaS multiples.”
The Seven-Day Truce: Why Anthropic Had to Break Its Own Pause
Six days after Dario Amodei called for an industrywide capabilities pause, Reuters reported Anthropic is weighing an expedited frontier release ahead of its October IPO. A moral truce cannot survive an S-1 filing when public equity markets discount lagging models at enterprise SaaS multiples.
Continue reading ->Papers
* Working drafts and published work will be listed here.
Recent essays
The Seven-Day Truce: Why Anthropic Had to Break Its Own Pause
Six days after Dario Amodei called for an industrywide capabilities pause, Reuters reported Anthropic is weighing an expedited frontier release ahead of its October IPO. A moral truce cannot survive an S-1 filing when public equity markets discount lagging models at enterprise SaaS multiples.
What Happens When Chip Volume Doubles but the Grid Does Not
Nvidia projected a doubling of semiconductor shipment volume next year alongside a 70 percent revenue increase. In an industry facing four-year transformer backlogs and extended utility interconnection queues, shipping twice as much silicon forces a choice between stranded inventory and accelerated asset write-downs.
How AI Hyperscaler Debt Is Repricing Its Own Hurdle Rate
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh singled out AI debt issuance as a driver behind the 10-year Treasury yield crossing 5 percent. When the race to build data centers consumes corporate cash flows and floods the bond market, AI capex creates a feedback loop that jacks up the discount rate on its own future returns.
The Problem with Modeling AI Governance on FINRA
OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google DeepMind have reportedly discussed a FINRA-style self-regulatory body for frontier AI. But FINRA works because federal law makes expulsion fatal. Without statutory backing, an industry standards body is either toothless during competitive races or a private mechanism that raises compliance hurdles for challengers.
Standing columns
The data, before the take
A weekly dispatch
One essay on pricing, markets, or the economics of AI - for people who like being argued with, gently. No price targets.
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