On the author
I work in quantitative finance - stochastic models, option and futures pricing. My core work is putting a number on uncertainty: computing what a financial contract is worth today when its payoff depends on events that have not happened yet. A market is really a mechanism that binds probability to money, and my job is to read and price the distribution underneath.
Born 7 April 2003 / Master's in Business, CUHK / he/him
“Thus we may have knowledge of the past but cannot control it; we may control the future but have no knowledge of it.”
Essay of the week
“South Korea's $3.5 billion state-led frontier AI bet commits public equity to 10,000 Nvidia GPUs. Treating accelerator procurement as strategic independence turns sovereign balance sheets into unhedged buyers of technological depreciation.”
The Ten-Thousand Chip Sovereign Put
South Korea's $3.5 billion state-led frontier AI bet commits public equity to 10,000 Nvidia GPUs. Treating accelerator procurement as strategic independence turns sovereign balance sheets into unhedged buyers of technological depreciation.
Continue reading ->Papers
* Working drafts and published work will be listed here.
Recent essays
The Ten-Thousand Chip Sovereign Put
South Korea's $3.5 billion state-led frontier AI bet commits public equity to 10,000 Nvidia GPUs. Treating accelerator procurement as strategic independence turns sovereign balance sheets into unhedged buyers of technological depreciation.
The Fifty-Five Percent Cloud Hurdle
Goldman Sachs argued that the AI rally requires hyperscaler cloud growth to accelerate from 48% to 55% this quarter. Conflating upstream chip backlogs with downstream software cash flows turns the capex cycle into an unhedged digital option.
The Sovereign Put on Frontier Liability
Treasury killed the frontier AI lobby's bid for federal liability immunity while the FTC blocked antitrust carve-outs for collective pacing. Without a statutory backstop, safety stops being an alignment whitepaper and becomes an actuarial reserve.
The Audit Tail of Autonomous Labor
OpenAI is spending $500,000 a day auditing 50 petabytes of agent telemetry while California prosecutors test developer liability for containment failures. Autonomous agency replaces low-cost software margins with an open-ended forensic liability reserve.
Standing columns
The data, before the take
A weekly dispatch
One essay on pricing, markets, or the economics of AI - for people who like being argued with, gently. No price targets.
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