On the author
I work in quantitative finance - stochastic models, option and futures pricing. My core work is putting a number on uncertainty: computing what a financial contract is worth today when its payoff depends on events that have not happened yet. A market is really a mechanism that binds probability to money, and my job is to read and price the distribution underneath.
Born 7 April 2003 / Master's in Business, CUHK / he/him
“Thus we may have knowledge of the past but cannot control it; we may control the future but have no knowledge of it.”
Essay of the week
“Pimco's estimate of two trillion dollars in annual AI debt demands roughly ten percent of global corporate bond capacity, transforming equity speculation into fixed interest coverage risk.”
The Ten Trillion Dollar Financing Wall
Pimco's estimate of two trillion dollars in annual AI debt demands roughly ten percent of global corporate bond capacity, transforming equity speculation into fixed interest coverage risk.
Continue reading ->Papers
* Working drafts and published work will be listed here.
Recent essays
The Ten Trillion Dollar Financing Wall
Pimco's estimate of two trillion dollars in annual AI debt demands roughly ten percent of global corporate bond capacity, transforming equity speculation into fixed interest coverage risk.
Why Deep Pockets Cannot Cure Accelerated Depreciation
White House reassurances that deep-pocketed tech giants will backstop AI debt ignore the arithmetic of a 36-month hardware depreciation clock colliding with fixed-rate infrastructure liabilities.
The S&P 493 Productivity Deficit
Apollo's corporate earnings data confirms that while the Magnificent Seven expanded revenue per worker to $800,000, the remaining 493 companies in the S&P 500 saw zero margin expansion or productivity lift from AI adoption.
The Eight Hundred Billion Dollar Depreciation Schedule
When four out of five hyperscalers swung to negative free cash flow to fund an $828 billion infrastructure bill, Silicon Valley traded asset-light software margins for merchant utility debt.
Standing columns
Research tools
pdf -> markdownKolmoPDF
VLM-based PDF parsing that keeps formulas, tables, code blocks, and multi-column order intact — clean text you can wire straight into an agent or knowledge base.
kolmopdf.com ->The data, before the take
A weekly dispatch
One essay on pricing, markets, or the economics of AI - for people who like being argued with, gently. No price targets.
One careful essay, most weeks. Unsubscribe anytime.